At 11:00 a.m. today, the disturbance was centered near latitude 12.2 north, longitude 50.5 west or 755 miles or 1220 km east southeast of the Lesser Antilles. The system is moving toward the west near 22 mph or 35 km/h.  A slower west-northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the Leeward Islands on

Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph or 55 km/h with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Leeward Islands.

Repeating the 11:00 a.m. position of potential tropical cyclone 15, latitude 12.2 north, longitude 50.5 west, or 755 miles or 1220 km east southeast of the Lesser Antilles.

Residents of Saint Lucia and the rest of the Windward and Leeward Islands are asked to closely monitor the progress of this system and those living in areas prone to flooding and landslides should take all necessary precautions against these hazards.

This is the first advisory issued by the Saint Lucia Meteorological Office on this system. The next advisory will be issued at 2:00 pm today.

E. Francis

Forecaster

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

HEWANORRA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT